Five days ahead of the elections, Republican candidate Donald Trump expressed serious concern over the persecution of minorities in Bangladesh. Many representatives from the Bangladesh government and analysts have suggested that this might be a tactic to attract votes from Hindu Americans. Analysts believe that Trump’s message on the social media platform X highlights the importance of India as a regional power in South Asia. Trump stated, “Under my administration, we will strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend Prime Minister Modi.” He also described the situation in Bangladesh as “extremely chaotic” while raising allegations of minority persecution, claiming such issues would not occur if he were president.

When asked about the potential implications for Bangladesh-U.S. relations, particularly at the governmental level, should Trump become president, Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, told Kaler Kantho, “First of all, Trump’s comments about Bangladesh should be viewed within the context of electoral politics. He made those remarks while seeking votes from important constituencies just days before the elections. However, we should also consider the challenges the Bangladesh-U.S. relationship could face if Trump wins.”

Kugelman continued, “The interim government in Bangladesh is unlikely to receive Trump’s remarks positively. The interim government is led by someone who has previously criticized Trump. Therefore, if Trump returns to the White House, it serves as a wake-up call for the interim government to recognize the challenges they may face and how they should address those challenges.” 

When asked whether current U.S. policies regarding Bangladesh would remain consistent if current Vice President Kamala Harris won the presidential election, Kugelman responded, “I believe that if Kamala Harris becomes president, U.S. policy toward Bangladesh will largely continue as it is. However, I do not think she played a major role in shaping U.S. policy toward Bangladesh as Vice President. Nevertheless, her foreign policy may align closely with that of the Biden administration.”

Rudabeh Shahid, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, told Kaler Kantho that many were surprised by Trump’s message about Bangladesh on X. However, the context of this message can be better understood by observing the demands of various ethnic groups toward the U.S. administration. A recent Carnegie Endowment survey found that the proportion of Indian Americans identifying as Democrats has fallen to 47 percent, down from 56 percent in 2020. Shahid noted that despite connections to India, support for Kamala Harris within that community stands at only 60 percent, while nearly 70 percent of Indian Americans voted for Biden four years ago. Meanwhile, support for Trump has increased from 22 percent to 31 percent.

Shahid further commented that the polarization and communal politics during Narendra Modi's government in India have also influenced the South Asian community in the U.S. Supporters of Hindutva often downplay the plight of minorities in India, but they highlight the issues faced by minorities in Muslim-majority Bangladesh. For this reason, Trump is likely aiming to solidify his voter base among Indian Americans in swing states and among the wealthiest ethnic groups in America. This message may be more directly aimed at Hindu American voters than at the Yunus government in Bangladesh. 

Regarding the potential impact of U.S. election results on relations with Bangladesh, Shahid remarked that some observers of South Asia in the U.S. believe that regardless of whether Democrats or Republicans are in power, U.S. policy towards South Asia tends to remain relatively consistent, although there may be differences in strategies for countering China.

Shahid added that the Trump administration could offer India more opportunities to address issues occurring in its neighboring countries and, more broadly, in the Indo-Pacific region. Conversely, Democrats tend to place greater emphasis on human rights and climate issues while in power, which is significant for Bangladesh. Additionally, we know that Yunus has strong relationships with influential figures in the Democratic Party. However, other authorities, including the Department of Defense, also play a role in shaping U.S. foreign policy. Thus, who holds office in the White House may not be the most crucial factor.

The senior fellow from the South Asia Center stated, “If Trump wins, supporters of the Awami League in the U.S. may feel optimistic. However, it will be important to see whether Trump truly prioritizes India in the manner he has indicated in his message once in power.”